𝐓𝐑𝐎𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐋 𝐂𝐘𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐍𝐄 𝐁𝐔𝐋𝐋𝐄𝐓𝐈𝐍 𝐍𝐑. 𝟏𝟎

𝐒𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐂𝐀𝐑𝐈𝐍𝐀 (𝐆𝐀𝐄𝐌𝐈)

𝐼𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑡 5:00 𝐴𝑀, 22 𝐽𝑢𝑙𝑦 2024

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑑 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑥𝑡 𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑡 11:00 𝐴𝑀 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑦.

“𝐂𝐀𝐑𝐈𝐍𝐀” 𝐁𝐄𝐂𝐎𝐌𝐄𝐒 𝐀 𝐒𝐄𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐄 𝐓𝐑𝐎𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐋 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑𝐌 𝐖𝐇𝐈𝐋𝐄 𝐑𝐄𝐌𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐀𝐋𝐌𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍𝐀𝐑𝐘

𝐋𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 (𝟒:𝟎𝟎 𝐀𝐌):

The center of Severe Tropical Storm CARINA was estimated based on all available data at 420 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (17.2°N, 125.7°E)

𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲:

Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 125 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa

𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

North Northwestward slowly

𝐄𝐱𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐬:

Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 360 km from the center

𝐓𝐑𝐎𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐋 𝐂𝐘𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐍𝐄 𝐖𝐈𝐍𝐃 𝐒𝐈𝐆𝐍𝐀𝐋𝐒 (𝐓𝐂𝐖𝐒) 𝐈𝐍 𝐄𝐅𝐅𝐄𝐂𝐓

𝐓𝐂𝐖𝐒 𝐍𝐨. 𝟏 (Wind threat: Strong winds)

𝐖𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞: 36 hours

𝐑𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)

𝐏𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐬: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

𝐋𝐮𝐳𝐨𝐧

The eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga) and the northeastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon)

𝐎𝐓𝐇𝐄𝐑 𝐇𝐀𝐙𝐀𝐑𝐃𝐒 𝐀𝐅𝐅𝐄𝐂𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐋𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐀𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐒

𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐯𝐲 𝐑𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤

Forecast accumulated rainfall: Today

• 100-200 mm: The extreme northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan

• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela

Forecast accumulated rainfall: Tomorrow (23 July)

• 100-200 mm: Batanes

• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan

Forecast accumulated rainfall: Wednesday (24 July)

• 50-100 mm: Batanes and Babuyan Islands

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in official hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

Furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by CARINA will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon tonight through Wednesday. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 24 issued at 11:00 PM yesterday.

𝐒𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐬

Minimal to minor impacts due to strong winds may be experienced within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 1 is hoisted.

The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by CARINA will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):

• Today: MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Northern Samar, and the northern portion of Samar.

• Tomorrow: Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Visayas

• Wednesday: Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Visayas.

𝐇𝐀𝐙𝐀𝐑𝐃𝐒 𝐀𝐅𝐅𝐄𝐂𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐂𝐎𝐀𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐋 𝐖𝐀𝐓𝐄𝐑𝐒

In the next 24 hours, CARINA and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring moderate to rough seas over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon (1.5 to 3.0 m). Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

Moderate seas are also expected over the seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon (1.5 to 2.5 m) and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao (1.5 to 2.0 m). Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating under these conditions.

𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐂𝐊 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐈𝐍𝐓𝐄𝐍𝐒𝐈𝐓𝐘 𝐎𝐔𝐓𝐋𝐎𝐎𝐊

• Over the Philippine Sea, CARINA is forecast to move generally north northwestward to northward until mid-Wednesday (24 July) while gradually accelerating before turning northwestward for the remainder of the forecast period. On the track forecast, CARINA will remain far from the Philippine landmass and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday evening or Thursday early morning (25 July). The track forecast also shows CARINA passing near or over the southern islands of the Ryukyu archipelago prior to leaving the PAR region and passing close to northern Taiwan after exiting the PAR. From Thursday onwards, CARINA will move over the East China Sea towards southeastern China.

• CARINA is forecast to steadily intensify over the next four days due to favorable environment. It is forecast to reach typhoon category within 24 hours. Rapid intensification within the forecast period is likely.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.

𝐃𝐎𝐒𝐓-𝐏𝐀𝐆𝐀𝐒𝐀