Severe Tropical Storm CARINA (GAEMI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 22 July 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “CARINA” CONTINUES TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
• Location of Center (10:00 AM)
The center of Severe Tropical Storm CARINA was estimated based on all available data at 355 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (17.4°N, 125.1°E)
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
• Present Movement
Northwestward at 15km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 340 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
○ Wind threat: Strong winds
○ Warning lead time: 36 hours
○ Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
○ Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
Batanes, the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga) including the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Camiguin Is., Babuyan Is.), and the northeastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Today to Tomorrow noon (23 July)
• 100-200 mm: The extreme northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan
• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Tomorrow noon (23 July) to Wednesday noon (24 July)
• 100-200 mm: Batanes
• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Wednesday noon (24 July) to Thursday noon (25 July)
• 50-100 mm: Batanes
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in official hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
Furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by CARINA will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon tonight through Wednesday. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 25 issued at 11:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
Minimal to minor impacts due to strong winds may be experienced within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 1 is hoisted.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by CARINA will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Northern Samar, and the northern portion of Samar.
• Tomorrow: Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Visayas
• Wednesday: Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Apayao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Visayas.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, CARINA and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring moderate to rough seas over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon (2.0 to 3.5 m) and western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, and Western Visayas (1.5 to 3.0 m). Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Moderate seas are also expected over the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao (1.5 to 2.0 m). Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Over the Philippine Sea, CARINA is forecast to move generally northward from today until tomorrow (23 July) while gradually accelerating before turning northwestward for the remainder of the forecast period. On the track forecast, CARINA will remain far from the Philippine landmass and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday evening or Thursday early morning (25 July). The track forecast also shows CARINA passing near or over the southern islands of the Ryukyu archipelago prior to leaving the PAR region and passing close to northern Taiwan after exiting the PAR. From Thursday onwards, CARINA will move over the East China Sea towards southeastern China.
• CARINA is forecast to steadily intensify over the next four days due to favorable environment. It is forecast to reach typhoon category within 12 hours. Rapid intensification within the forecast period is likely.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
